So, although the portfolio is doing well overall, I almost feel like Warren Buffett during the late 90s runup of tech stocks. The portfolio has taken a hit over the last six months, while the overall market is running on all cylinders. NVR and Bitcoin are notable hits and the overall portfolio wiped out 50% of gains over the last six months. It is still up over 125% since I posted it three years ago which is an average of over 42% per year. That sounds great, but the original 3% of funds to buy Bitcoin messes with the numbers a bit as it has now grown to be 37% of the portfolio. Not that that is bad, as it was originally a speculative investment, but in the real world I would have sold off a large chunk of it. The four main contributors to the growth of the portfolio have been PYPL, Bitcoin, VSMAX, and NVR. As well, there have only been two securities which have turned in a loss, and those losses are tiny (around $5,000 of a $1 million portfolio). This portfolio is meant to be truly static so Bitcoin will remain whether it goes to zero or to $500k a piece. The portfolio has not fully been tested and for that we will need to wait over time and/or a serious challenge to the traditional markets, not just a correction.
So it has now been exactly two years since I made my version of the Permanent Portfolio public and it has outpaced the DOW and the S&P. The net return has been 79.4% while the DOW has had a return of 31.9% and the S&P 23.2% during the same time period. And, for the naysayers regarding my small investment in Bitcoin for the portfolio then one would have to say the same about NVR and PYPL, etc. But if one was to remove Bitcoin from the mix completely, the investment would have been within a point of the DOW’s return without any of the risks in holding just 30 equity stocks or a single ETF for the DOW. This portfolio is eclectic, to say the least, but is designed to weather some heavy financial storms as well. It also has a minimum 10-year horizon, so at two years, it is still in its infancy.
See the full page here: https://karldickey.wordpress.com/karl-dickey-investment-portfolio/